Gísli Gylfason

Research

Job Market Paper

Doomscrolling: TikTok and News Consumption

Draft available upon request.

Using device-level mobile use data and a novel instrument for TikTok use, I find that TikTok use substantially reduces news consumption around major news events such as elections. Survey evidence shows the effect extends beyond mobile devices: TikTok use also decreases traditional news consumption, political knowledge, and increases partisan polarization in presidential approval.

Full abstract

How does TikTok use affect news consumption? Leveraging detailed device-level mobile browsing and app use data and a shock to early adoption of TikTok as a novel, plausibly exogenous source of variation, I estimate the causal effect of TikTok use on news consumption, political knowledge and attitudes in the United States. I find that increased TikTok use substantially reduces news consumption related to major news events such as elections, national disasters and major political developments. TikTok use causes decreases in news consumption along both the extensive and intensive margins. It also reduces the length of individuals’ news consumption sessions, suggesting that reduced attention spans contribute to the effect. Survey evidence shows that the effect is not limited to mobile devices and has downstream consequences. Individuals in high-TikTok-use media markets have lower traditional news consumption and political knowledge, and higher partisan polarization in presidential approval after, but not before, TikTok’s proliferation.

Working Papers

Twitter’s Effect on Mental Health: Evidence from Population-Scale U.S. Insurance Data, 2006–2020

with Debra Baseman, Greta Bushnell, Kara J. Dolinski, Daniel B. Horton, Dmitri Kosenkov, Manoj Kumar, Emnet Sisay, Olga G. Troyanskaya, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya and Jacob N. Shapiro

Under review Draft available upon request. This draft: August 2026.

Linking population-scale U.S. public and private insurance claims to a shock to early Twitter adoption, we find that Twitter penetration raised claims for anxiety, depression and eating disorders from 2011 onward.

Full abstract

Social media may harm mental health, but population-scale causal evidence remains limited. Existing studies mostly rely on self-reported outcomes, small samples, and short time horizons. We link population-scale health insurance claims across the social media era (2006–2020) to geographic variation in Twitter use. Mental-health claims increase 28% more over this period in metropolitan areas with above-median Twitter use. To isolate causality we leverage an exogenous shock to Twitter adoption at the 2007 South-by-Southwest festival. We estimate that a one-percentage-point increase in metropolitan-area adult Twitter use, relative to that year’s national average, led to 3.5 additional annual claims per 100 insured for anxiety, depression, and eating disorders. The increase is consistent from 2011–2020, larger for women and, among the privately insured, adolescents. These results suggest social media may harm mental health directly, through content, and indirectly, by changing social interactions.

From Tweets to the Streets: Twitter and Extremist Protests in the United States

April 2025

Twitter raised the frequency of U.S. protests and disproportionately fuelled those involving extreme groups, on both the political left and the right.

Full abstract

How does social media affect the composition of political protests in the United States? Using early adoption of Twitter as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in county-level Twitter penetration, and comprehensive data on protest events, this paper finds that Twitter penetration increases the frequency of protests overall, but also radicalizes them. Twitter disproportionately fuels protests with participation of “extreme” groups — groups that are particularly militant, radical, or hateful — both on the political left and right. Survey data suggest that coordination is not the only mechanism: county-level Twitter penetration also intensifies opinions, plausibly increasing individuals’ willingness to partake in protests involving extreme groups.

Work in Progress

The Political Effects of Russian TV Propaganda in the Baltics

with Vitalia Eliseeva and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

Using the 2022 ban on Russian state television in Estonia and Latvia, this project studies how losing access to propaganda affects voting behaviour.

Pre-doctoral Publications